Brussels Kerosene Emergency Plan April 22, 2026: Your Summer Flights at Risk

1. The Double Shock Shaking European Aviation

Iran War + Strait of Hormuz = Unprecedented Double Shock

Since Feb 28, 2026 $88 → $216/barrel +20 to 40% on tickets Reserves: 8–10 days

Since the outbreak of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran on February 28, 2026, the maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and up to 40% of aviation kerosene supply transits — has become nearly impassable for hydrocarbon transport. According to RTÉ Brainstorm, tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by 70 to 80%.

What makes the situation worse: airlines are simultaneously facing two distinct shocks. On the one hand, fuel prices have exploded — $88/barrel at end of February, $197/barrel on March 20, $216/barrel in mid-April 2026. On the other hand, consumption has increased: the closure of airspace over the Gulf forces aircraft into detours of 90 to 120 extra minutes, burning up to 5,600 additional gallons of jet fuel per Tokyo-London flight, according to Carnets de Voyages. Filling a Boeing 737-800 cost $17,000 on February 27 — less than a week later, it cost more than $27,000.

Even during the Ukraine war in 2022, jet fuel only peaked at $180/barrel. We are already 20% beyond that record. For airlines that had budgeted 26% of their operating costs based on $88/barrel, the bill is catastrophic: with average margins of 4%, they cannot absorb this additional cost, confirms Air Journal.

What This Means Concretely

• IATA confirms a 20 to 40% rise in airfares this summer, across all airlines
• 75% of Europe’s kerosene imports come from the Middle East, versus only 8 internal EU refineries
• Turkish Airlines — a hub not exposed to the Gulf — paradoxically becomes one of the few relative winners of the crisis
• Tourism to the Middle East is in free fall: -65% in summer 2026 bookings

Pixidia tip: For flights to Asia or India with polar rerouting, read our analysis of 2026 transpolar flights and their impact to understand new routes and their extra costs.

2. The Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Jet Fuel Chokepoint

25 to 30% of Europe’s Jet Fuel Passes Through the Gulf

-70-80% tanker traffic 8-10 days autonomy IEA alert: 6 weeks Italy: 7 airports rationed

The Strait of Hormuz is not just a geostrategic waterway — it is Europe’s primary aviation fuel supply valve. Approximately 25 to 30% of European kerosene comes from the Persian Gulf, and 75% of total imports come from the Middle East, according to Al Jazeera. With tanker traffic down 70 to 80%, the supply chain is structurally weakened.

The situation is so serious that IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol declared that Europe has « maybe six weeks of kerosene left », warning of possible flight cancellations « soon » if oil supplies remain blocked. Several Member States have, according to Déplacements Pros, only 8 to 10 days of reserve autonomy before introducing rationing.

Italy is already in the front line. Since April 6, 2026, major jet fuel restrictions have affected seven Italian airports. Air BP Italia, the country’s main aviation fuel supplier, confirmed these limitations to several airlines that reported being unable to refuel sufficiently for domestic flights. Milan Linate, Venice Marco Polo, Treviso, and Bologna airports are the most affected.

European Reserves on the Brink

• Italy: 7 airports under active rationing since April 6 — Rome Fiumicino and Milan Malpensa under surveillance
• Spain: a more favorable position thanks to 8 internal refineries and net exporter status
• UK: vulnerable — over 60% of demand covered by imports
• Shocking revelation: no coordinated EU-level mapping or monitoring of aviation fuel exists

Pixidia tip: If you have a flight to Italy this summer, closely monitor your airline’s updates. Our article on your rights in case of cancelled flights to the Middle East also details the procedure applicable to cancelled European flights.

3. What Brussels Is Concretely Preparing for April 22

The European Commission confirmed it would present a package of measures on April 22, 2026 to mitigate the consequences of the Iran war on energy markets, particularly on aviation fuel. According to information provided by Airlines for Europe (A4E) — the association grouping Ryanair, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, easyJet, and IAG — the package revolves around four pillars:

Measure 1 — Mapping of European Refineries

A comprehensive mapping of refining capacities across the 27 Member States aims to maximize intra-European production and identify bottlenecks. This is the direct response to the shocking revelation from the Commission’s Oil Coordination Group meeting: no coordinated EU-level assessment existed on kerosene production and availability.

Measure 2 — Joint Kerosene Purchasing (2022 Gas Model)

This mechanism, modelled on the natural gas joint purchasing plan set up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, would improve visibility on available volumes and strengthen bargaining power against major oil groups. A4E also proposes adapting the 90-day strategic oil reserve obligation to include a specific kerosene-dedicated requirement, currently absent from European legislation.

Measure 3 — Temporary Suspension of Aviation Carbon Market (ETS)

This is the flagship measure requested most insistently by airlines. The carbon tax on intra-European aviation constitutes an amplifying surcharge during a crisis, and also discourages third-party suppliers from signing supply contracts for summer 2026. A temporary suspension would release immediate operational margins.

Measure 4 — Dedicated Aviation Kerosene Strategic Reserves

Brussels is working on the creation of strategic reserves specific to aviation fuel. The absence of such a mechanism — separate from general oil reserves — is the structural flaw exposed by the crisis. The decision timeline is: Commission package on April 22, European Council end of April, then negotiations with A4E on the SAF mandate revision.

4. Which Airlines Risk Cancelling Your Flights This Summer?

Airlines’ vulnerability depends primarily on their fuel hedging rate — i.e. the percentage of their projected consumption purchased at a fixed price in advance. Here is the ranking established by Ulysse News:

❌ Tier 3 — High-Risk Airlines for Cancellations

• SAS (0% hedging): has already cancelled 1,000 flights. The Scandinavian airline is the most exposed in the European sector.
• KLM: announced on April 16, 2026 the cancellation of 160 flights at Amsterdam Schiphol, explicitly citing fuel cost increases linked to the Iran war, according to ABC News.
• Lufthansa: on April 16, the airline announced the closure of its regional subsidiary CityLine and the permanent withdrawal of 27 aircraft.
• Ryanair: despite its strong hedging (see below), the Irish group warns it could cut up to 10% of its flights between May and July 2026 if tensions persist.

✅ Tier 1 — Well-Protected Airlines

• Ryanair (80% hedged at $67/barrel): according to CEO Michael O’Leary, the airline saves approximately $1,000/tonne compared to the current spot price. Paradoxically both the best-hedged and the one warning of cuts if it continues.
• easyJet (84% in H1): solid hedging for the first half, more exposed in the second.
• Air France-KLM (87% in H1): broad hedging and diversified hubs, although KLM is already cancelling flights.
• IAG (British Airways, Iberia): direct access to Spanish refineries via Madrid — Spain, a net kerosene exporter, is one of the few EU countries in a favorable position.

5. How Much Will You Pay for Summer Airfares?

Kerosene surcharges have been in effect since March 2026. Here is the situation as of April 19, compiled from AirHelp and France Info:

• Air France: surcharge of approximately €50 round trip in economy class (since March 11, 2026); on transatlantic flights, the surcharge reaches €319
• British Airways: +£28.50 per journey, currently being deployed
• Lufthansa: doubled surcharge since March 18. Hong Kong–Europe: €62 → €129 round trip. Some long-haul: up to $149.20 per segment
• IATA estimate: a 20 to 40% rise on all tickets issued this summer, across all airlines

Three Scenarios for Summer 2026

Optimistic scenario: The aviation ETS is effectively suspended on April 22, triggering a drop in operating costs and a stabilization of fares by July. This is the scenario defended by A4E.

Median scenario: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed in June. Targeted cancellations affect the least-hedged airlines. Prices stabilize at +20-30% for others.

Pessimistic scenario: The Strait still closed in June, joint purchasing works but primarily benefits France and Germany, leaving European peripheries under pressure. Mass cancellations.

6. Your Passenger Rights When Flights Are Cancelled

This is the central issue for any traveller with already purchased summer tickets. Regulation (EC) No 261/2004 remains your main shield — but with a crucial nuance depending on the reason for the cancellation.

EC Regulation 261/2004: What You Are Entitled To

• €250 fixed compensation for flights up to 1,500 km
• €400 for intra-EU flights over 1,500 km
• €600 for all flights over 3,500 km
• Full ticket refund within 7 days or free re-routing
• Meals, accommodation, and hotel-airport transport covered even in case of extraordinary circumstances

The Crucial Distinction: Economic vs Force Majeure

Cancellation for economic reasons (fuel cost increases, network restructuring, subsidiary closure like CityLine): you are fully eligible for EC261 compensation. The fuel surge is an economic risk borne by airlines — it is not an unforeseeable and unavoidable event in the legal sense. AirHelp anticipates that the first legal disputes on this point will be favorable to passengers.

Cancellation due to airspace closure (extraordinary circumstances within the meaning of the regulation): the airline is exempt from fixed compensation. But it remains obligated to fully refund the ticket and provide assistance (meals, accommodation, transport). It cannot disengage entirely.

7. Protecting Your Summer 2026 Holiday: The Method

Facing this unprecedented crisis, here are concrete recommendations drawn from the sector analyses of Ulysse News and passenger rights experts.

Before Booking

• Favour well-hedged airlines: for short and medium-haul, Ryanair and easyJet maintain more stable fares thanks to their hedging. For long-haul, IAG and Air France.
• Avoid SAS, Volotea and regional operators: their low hedging exposes them more to targeted cancellations.
• Book on Monday: prices are on average 7% lower than mid-week.
• Set price alerts on Google Flights, Hopper or Skyscanner — fares fluctuate daily right now.

If You Already Have a Ticket

• Never cancel yourself: this is the golden rule. Wait for the airline’s cancellation to keep all your EC261 rights.
• In case of cancellation, demand a cash refund: explicitly state that you refuse any voucher or credit note, citing Article 8 of EC Regulation 261/2004.
• Prepare a land-based backup plan: Paris-Milan TGV has increased its frequencies; the Frecciarossa allows you to reach Venice, Bologna and Florence without depending on airport refuelling.

When Will Prices Normalize?

According to analysts cited by CBS News, once tankers resume normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices will not return to normal immediately: it will take weeks, even months to stabilize supply and bring oil prices back to normal levels.